NFL Week 5 Pick Results
By Mike | October 10, 2007
Hey look, I still suck at making picks. I went an amazingly awful 4-8-1 last week bringing my year to date results up to 23-46-6. I know I recommended that you not take my picks seriously and that it wasn’t a good idea to make any wagers based on what I said, but I think I might change that stance now. Look at my picks and bet the opposite. You should do fine. You can’t be this bad on luck alone.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 16 | +3.5 | 13 | New Orleans Saints |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 | -2 | 7 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Detroit Lions | 3 | +3.5 | 34 | Washington Redskins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 13 | +8.5 | 20 | Tennessee Titans |
| Miami Dolphins | 19 | +6 | 22 | Houston Texans |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | +6.5 | 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Cleveland Browns | 17 | +17 | 34 | New England Patriots |
| Arizona Cardinals | 34 | -3.5 | 31 | St. Louis Rams |
| New York Jets | 24 | +4 | 35 | New York Giants |
| San Diego Chargers | 41 | +0 | 3 | Denver Broncos |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | -3.5 | 7 | San Fransisco 49ers |
| Chicago Bears | 27 | +3.5 | 20 | Green Bay Packers |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25 | -11 | 24 | Buffalo Bills |
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Bears Win ?!?
By Mike | October 7, 2007
Holy Crap! I can’t believe they pulled this game out? I had zero confidence and had resorted to rooting for players on my various fantasy teams to have big days. If the Bears are going to lose at least I can get something out of it right? And then the Bears Defense came out and dominated in the second half, which screwed me in just about every fantasy game I was in, but I’m certainly not complaining.
As I mentioned, big kudos to the Bears D. They looked horrible in the first half, but were able to force turnovers to keep it close. Then they more or less shut Green Bay down for the entire second half. When they are normally giving up ridiculous yardage, they actually stood tall tonight and kept the team in it.
The running game is still horrible. There were a few plays when Benson made some decent yardage, but most of the time he’s barely breaking the line of scrimmage. Its not always his fault. He’s getting hit in the backfield an awful lot. And they kept running that draw play up the middle that netted an average of 0.7 yards.
Its nice to see the tight ends getting into the game. Olson is getting to where we all hoped he would be when they drafted him, and Clark is still making huge plays. I love the pass play for the TD late in the game on 3rd and two.
I had all but given up on the Bears chances of making the playoffs this year, but I’m feeling a little better about it now. Hopefully they can use this win to springboard them to a nice run.
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Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 5
By Mike | October 6, 2007
No fancy introduction this week. Just picks. If you are the betting sort I’d recommend taking the opposite of what I suggest. You could come out quite well.
Carolina Panthers +3.5 at New Orleans Saints - This is tough one. Both teams have been very disappointing this year. I have a feeling that the Panthers get back on track by letting Steve Smith exploit the Saints defense, but I’ve been picking too many road dogs with horrible results and since this one is too close for me to call I’ll take the home team.
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 at Kansas City Chiefs - This is going to be a low scoring game, but the Chiefs will hold on for their second win.
Detroit Lions +3.5 at Washington Redskins - The Lions are starting to look good this year and I think they’ll slip by the Skins, or at least keep it close enough to cover.
Atlanta Falcons +8.5 at Tennessee Titans - I don’t know if I’m a believer in the Titans yet, but I like their chances against Atlanta.
Miami Dolphins +6 at Houston Texans - It feels weird picking the Texans to win anything, let alone by 6 points, but they it looks like they finally have a team this year.
Seattle Seahawks +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers - I’ve bet on the “angry after a loss take it out on their next opponent” line a bit this year, and usually been wrong, but I think the Steelers will be a bit cranky after losing to Arizona last week and they will demolish the Seahawks.
Cleveland Browns +17 at New England Patriots - I think 17 is the most points I’ve seen in a pro game. I have a feeling the Patriots will be up at least that much by halftime then take their foot of the gas, but until they lose a game by less than 17 I’m not picking agianst them especially when they are going against a team that gives up as many points as the Browns do. I expect this game to be like the Cleveland/Cincinnati game except this time the Browns don’t score very often.
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 at St. Louis Rams - What happened to the Rams? Underdogs at home against the Cardinals? And they’re without Steven Jackson and Isaac Bruce. It doesn’t look very good for them.
New York Jets +4 at New York Giants - If the Giant’s can make Philly’s offense look that horrible I don’t know what they are going to do to the Jets.
San Diego Chargers +0 at Denver Broncos - Both these teams are pretty bad, but I think the Chargers will go into Denver and come out with a win. Hopefully I’m not basing that decision too much on last year’s charger’s team.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at San Fransisco 49ers - I’m taking another team coming of an upset loss in the Ravens. I think they’ll end up shutting the Niners down this week.
Chicago Bears +3.5 at Green Bay Packers - If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years its that Green Bay absolutely embarrasses the Bears when they play on national TV. It pains me to say it but I don’t see how this week will be any different. Favre is having an amazing year, the Packers are rolling, the Bears are horrible this just won’t end up well.
Dallas Cowboys -11 at Buffalo Bills - I picked against the Cowboys last week and lost. No one has been able to stop their offense yet, and I don’t think the Bills will be the first.
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NFL Week 4 Pick Results
By Mike | October 6, 2007
With all the excitement of Cubs playoff baseball I’m running a bit behind on my NFL picks. That and I’m almost too embarrassed to post the results here. This weeks lesson in why you shouldn’t gamble on sports has me going an amazingly horrible 4-10. The sad part is that is a actually an improvement over prior weeks. I really need to stop taking so many road teams. My 4-10 this week brings me to 19-38-5 so far on the year.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 16 | -3 | 26 | Atlanta Falcons |
| New York Jets | 14 | -3.5 | 17 | Buffalo Bills |
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | -4 | 27 | Clevland Browns |
| St. Louis Rams | 7 | 13.5 | 35 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Chicago Bears | 27 | -3 | 37 | Detroit Lions |
| Oakland Raiders | 35 | 4 | 17 | Miami Dolphins |
| Green Bay Packers | 23 | -3 | 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 | 3 | 7 | Carolina Panthers |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 | -6.5 | 21 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Denver Broncos | 20 | 10 | 38 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | 12 | 16 | San Diego Chargers |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | -3 | 16 | New York Giants |
| New England Patriots | 34 | -7.5 | 13 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Topics: Football, Gambling | No Comments »
NLDS Game One Thoughts
By Mike | October 4, 2007
A lot has been made out of Lou Pinella’s decision to pull Zambrano after six innings in last night’s game, and its easy to criticize the move after the fact.
For the record I was against it at the time. The logic didn’t quite make sense. He was pulling his top pitcher in a tied game so that he’d be ready for game four. I can understand that move if the Cubs are ahead. You figure the bullpen combo if Marmol, Howry and Dempster have been closing the door all year so if you can win the game and minimize the effort needed by your ace you go for it. Similarly if the Cubs are down the you pull him figuring that you have probably already lost, no use making game four any harder by tiring him out.
But it was a tie game, and good Carlos was rolling. You have to leave him in there. By taking him out you are not only counting on your bullpen for the hold, but you are also counting on your offense to push across a run or two. What happens if the bullpen does hold, but the offense chokes. Then you’ve used all your ammo and you’re still tied and the advantage swings to the D-backs.
I think Lou got a bit ahead of himself. They should have tried to win this one at all costs and worried about game four when it comes around. Maybe if they won this game they wouldn’t have needed a game four.
The reason the Cubs lost yesterday is not because Marmol gave up two runs, its because the offense couldn’t come through in the clutch. They had runners on base in at least the first 6 innings, including leadoff men on second and couldn’t score. Webb didn’t seem to have his best stuff yesterday and they kept letting him off the hook. If the Cubs are going to win this series they are going to need some help from the offense. Hopefully they get it tonight and we go back to Chicago tied up at one.
Topics: Baseball, Chicago Cubs | No Comments »
Drinking the Cool Aid
By Mike | October 3, 2007
Only a few hours until game time. Despite all my efforts not to get overly excited about Cubs playoff run, I find myself getting pumped up for tonights game. I know I’m just asking to have my heart crushed again, but everyone else is doing it, so why can’t I?
What’s I find really strange is that a lot of the so called experts are picking the Cubs to go far in this post season. Eight of the ten ESPN columnists picked the Cubs to advance past Arizona, and even the normally bitter, pessimistic local media seems to be hyping them.
Have people not been watching this team all year? Do they forget that the Cubs have the worst record, and come from the worst division of any the other seven playoff teams. Yes the Cubs had a really nice run in the middle of the summer, but they’ve also had some really bad weeks or months to balance that out.
Whether the Cubs go far depends largely on what team shows up in the next few weeks. (Duh) If its the team that had the best record in baseball for a few months around the All-Star game then I expect the to go far, but if not, then this could be a quick exit.
The biggest test is going to be Carlos. If he can stay the dominant pitcher that he has been for his last few starts, the Cubs will be fine. If he reverts back to the guy that throws over 100 pitches in four innings then we really have to hope that our 2,3,4 guys are as good compared to every one else as others have been claiming.
I predicted a few days ago that the Diamondbacks would win in four. Hopefully I’m wrong. I’m starting to reconsider that prediction, but maybe I’ve just been paying too much attention to the hype.
Topics: Baseball, Chicago Cubs | No Comments »
Playoff Predictions
By Mike | October 1, 2007
As my weekly NFL picks have shown, I’m not exactly good at predicting these sorts of things, but I’m doing it anyways.
ALDS
Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels in 4.
Cleveland Indians over New York Yankees in 5
NLDS
Arizona Diamondbacks over Chicago Cubs in 4 (sniff)
Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego Padres in 4 (Yes that means I think the Padres will win tonight. If not then I’ll take the Phillies over Colorodo in 4)
ALCS
Cleveland over the Boston in 7
NLCS
Philadelphia over Arizona in 6
WS
Phillies over the Indians in 6
Now hopefully Phillie fans won’t take it out on me when they get swept in the first round.
Topics: Baseball | No Comments »
Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 4
By Mike | September 28, 2007
I’m now 15-28-5 on the year. Not exactly the kinds of numbers that you want to see unless you are betting the opposite of my picks. Byes weeks start now, so at least I can’t get 16 wrong, although I’m going to have to practically run the table just to break even.
Here goes.
Houston Texans -3 at Atlanta Falcons - The storyline here is that Matt Schaub (I think that’s how you spell it. I’m too lazy to look it up so too bad) comes back to his old team and lights them up. Ahman Green is out and I’m not sure about Andre Johnson’s status, but I’m going to take the Texans anyway.
New York Jets -3.5 at Buffalo Bills - Don’t know much about either of these teams, but I’m going to go with the Jets.
Baltimore Ravens -4 at Clevland Browns - The Brown’s crazy offense doesn’t run up over 50 points against a defense like this. In fact they probably don’t roll up more than 10 points. And even though the Raven’s offense is nothing to brag about, it can outscore the Browns by at least 4.
St. Louis Rams +13.5 at Dallas Cowboys - 13.5 is a lot of points to be giving up, but this game is in Dallas, and the Cowboys are hot while the Rams are all kinds of bad. Plus Stephan Jackson is out. This could end up being one of those trap games where the Cowboys get beat by a crappy team, but I’m going to take the Cowboys anyway. On second thought. No I’m not. 13.5 is way too many points. The Cowboys will win with ease, but the Rams will get some points and lose by a TD, or maybe 10 points.
Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions - I’m surprised the Bears are still favored here. They haven’t exactly looked good and over half of their defensive starters will be out, or playing hurt this week. I have a bad feeling Lions receiving corp sees what Dallas did last week and runs circles around the Bears. Plus I’ve picked the Bears every week so far and lost each time. Maybe if I go against them they’ll surprise me. I can’t believe I’m doing this but Lions +3.
Oakland Raiders +4 at Miami Dolphins - Have I ever mentioned how much I hate the Dolphins? Well I do. A lot. I pretty much hate any team from Florida. Nothing against Florida, just that the professional and college sports teams from there really piss me off. What does this have to do with my pick? Nothing really, except that I’m going to pick against them. I’ll take the points, but I think (and hope) the Raiders win straight up.
Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings - The Packers are really pissing me off this year. I was expecting them to be mediocre at best and the actually appear to have a legitimate team. And now I have to pick them to go on the road and win. Even though they are giving up three points. grr.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Carolina Panthers - Steve Smith only caught one pass last week. He’ll have more TD’s than that this week. Panthers in a rout.
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 at San Fransisco 49ers - I don’t think the Seahawks are playing very well. Not that the niners are either, but they can at least hold off Seattle. Now that I’ve picked this, I fully expect a last second tie breaking field goal from Seattle. Stupid half point spreads.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 at Arizona Cardinals - I don’t normally think of Pittsburgh as an offensive powerhouse, but they’ve been getting it done on that side of the ball this year. They should have no problem walking over the Cards, even in Phoenix.
Denver Broncos +10 at Indianapolis Colts - The Broncos are bad, the Colts pretty good, but both teams seem to have close games, so while I would be shocked if the Broncos win, I’d also be surprised if they lost by double digits.
Kansas City Chiefs +12 at San Diego Chargers - Sooner or later the Chargers are going to have to break out and show that they are as good as everyone thought during preseason, and if its not this week then it won’ t be this year. If the Bears can win by 10 the Chargers can win by 12.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 at New York Giants -I have almost the exact same thoughts about this game as I did about the Giants /Skins game last week. Of Coarse I was wrong last week as the Giants upset the Skins, I don’t think they’ll repeat. Eagles by a lot.
New England Patriots -7.5 at Cincinnati Bengals - I wonder what the over/under is on this game. Both offenses have been putting a lot of points on the board. The problem for the Bengals is that Patriots have a defense and the Bengals do not. This will be a high scoring game but look for the Pats to find the endzone about twice as often as Cincinnati. I’ll take the Patriots and give the points.
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NFL Week 3 Pick Results
By Mike | September 26, 2007
Its a good thing no one reads this site because these picks are getting embarrassing. As if picking wrong way more often than not isn’t bad enough, as I was reviewing my picks from last week I realized that I misread the line on at least a couple of games, thinking the team was giving points when it was getting them or vice versa. It wouldn’t have changed my pick but it sure does make me look like a moron. I went a horrible 3-10-3 last week. I may have to resort to coin flipping next week. This is ridiculous. What I know now is that the Packers are for real, the Patriots are going to be laying triple digits by the end of the season and the Saints, Chargers, and Bears, and Rams are not as good as I thought they were, while the Raiders, Browns and Buccaneers may be a bit better than I gave the credit. Here’s the table depicting my inability to pick games. If you want to start putting money on the opposite of what I pick you could make a small fortune.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 30 | -6.5 | 24 | Houston Texans |
| San Diego Chargers | 24 | -6 | 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10 | +3 | 13 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Detroit Lions | 21 | +6 | 56 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | +17 | 38 | New England Patriots |
| Miami Dolphins | 28 | +3 | 31 | New York Jets |
| San Fransisco 49ers | 16 | +9 | 37 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Arizona Cardinals | 23 | +8 | 26 | Baltimore Ravens |
| St. Louis Rams | 3 | +4 | 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Jacksonville Jagaurs | 23 | +3.5 | 14 | Denver Broncos |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | +3 | 24 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Cleveland Browns | 24 | +3 | 26 | Oakland Raiders |
| Carolina Panthers | 27 | -4 | 20 | Atlanta Falcons |
| New York Giants | 24 | +4 | 17 | Washington Redskins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 34 | +3 | 10 | Chicago Bears |
| Tennessee Titans | 31 | +4 | 14 | New Orleans Saints |
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Abysmal
By Mike | September 23, 2007
The Bears offense is absolutely abysmal. And to be honest, I’m not all that impressed with their defense either.
Lets start with the defense. Did they make one stop in the second half? I know TO is a good player and all but can they just stop him from catching a ball for a first down on third and long just once? And why is that when the Bears have two or three rushers in Romo’s face he can shake them and still complete a 20 yard pass for a first down while one rusher just has to look at Grossman hard and he falls down?
In all three games the D has been outstanding in the first half, but then had a complete let down in the second. And you can’t blame it on the offense not holding onto the ball and wearing the D out because things were pretty even in the first half and in the first to drives of the second have Dallas marched down the field without a problem. It would be nice if they could make a tackle after halftime. Maybe they need more conditioning during practice. To they know the game is 60 minutes long?
Back to the offense, is there anyone on that squad doing anything right? The line isn’t holding up anything, Grossman can’t hit the broad side of a barn, unless its wearing the other teams colors, Benson can’t run for anything, Berrian dropped a sure TD and Moose has been hiding somewhere behind opposing players for three games now.
Up until now I’ve been a Grossman supporter. Yeah, he’s had his ups and downs, but I thought that a lot of the critics were overreacting. Not anymore. The Bears can’t continue to expect to win games with just the special teams and defense. They need to score points, on offense, and they aren’t going to do with Grossman. People (Broadcasters) keep saying that Griese isn’t the long term solution so why go to him? Well, if the Bears had a even a mediocre offense they would have a shot at winning a Superbowl in the next few years. Griese can be the QB during that span and hopefully by then they’ll have drafted the next QB of the future. It doesn’t make sense to worry about the future when you have the opportunity to win now.
Cedric Benson is not the answer at running back either. I was a big Thomas Jones fan, and much preferred him to Benson, but still, I supported trading Jones the Jets. It was Jones’ last year, and he wasn’t going to stay with the Bears after that, and Benson should have been a capable replacement, so you might as well trade Jones and get something for him. I’m thoroughly unimpressed with Benson so far. I’ve seen nothing that indicates he is anything other than an ordinary back. The Bears are really going to need to focus on offense this year come draft time.
On the receiving side Berrian has been decent, although his fumble last week killed some serious momentum, and his drop of a sure TD tonight didn’t help. And where is Muhsin Muhammad? Is he not our #1 receiver? Even for a number 2 four catches in three games isn’t very impressive? Is he not getting open? Is Rex not looking at him? Is he even on the field?
On the plus side it was nice to see Greg Olson in the game making plays. He had a few nice catches on the one drive where the Bears offense almost looked competent.
Even special teams which has been the best squad on the team had a rough day as Hester dropped every other kick he received, and when he wasn’t dropping them he was getting hit for minimal gains.
Oh wait TO just caught another 17 yard pass for a first down on third and long. Who would have thought they’d throw to him?
I have a bad feeling that its going to be a long season. Especially with defense starters starting to drop like flies. And how are the Packers 3-0.
That’s all I have. I’m too frustrated to write any more.
Topics: Football, Chicago Bears | No Comments »