NFL Week 9 Pick Results
By Mike | November 10, 2007
I had an average week last week, going 6-6 which given how poorly I’ve done the rest of the season actually looks pretty good about now. I somehow managed to not pick the Monday night game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I don’t know. In other football related news Adrian Peterson scored more fantasy points than my entire team last week. So its not just picking against the spread that I’m bad at. Its also picking decent fantasy players.
Here’s how last weeks picks went.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 23 | -4 | 20 | New York Jets |
| Green Bay Packers | 33 | +1.5 | 20 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10 | +3.5 | 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | +4 | 20 | Tennessee Titans |
| San Francisco 49ers | 16 | +3 | 20 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | +3.5 | 41 | New Orleans Saints |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | +3 | 44 | Detroit Lions |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | -1.5 | 33 | Buffalo Bills |
| San Diego Chargers | 17 | -7.5 | 35 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Seattle Seahawks | 30 | +1.5 | 33 | Cleveland Browns |
| New England Patriots | 24 | -6.5 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Houston Texans | 24 | +3 | 17 | Oakland Raiders |
| Dallas Cowboys | 28 | -3 | 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
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Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 9
By Mike | October 31, 2007
Just when you thought it was safe to bet against me I went and had a good week last week. can I keep it up? Stranger things have happened.
Washington Redskins -4 at New York Jets - I’ve picked teams many times this year thinking they would take out their frustrations from the previous week on the current opponent. And I’m usually wrong. This week I’m going to be right. The Skins are going to be cranky after last week’s embarrassment and the Jets are going to pay for it. It also helps that the Jets aren’t very good.
Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Kansas City Chiefs - The packers are going to win this one with ease. You’re giving me a point and a half? OK, thanks.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I thought this might be the year that Arizona breaks through and doesn’t suck, but as is often the case, I was wrong. Bucs Stomp them.
Carolina Panthers +4 at Tennessee Titans - I’m really want to pick Carolina in this one, but I’ve been wrong about these two teams almost every game this seasons so I’m going to stop going with my gut and go with past performance and take the Titans
San Francisco 49ers +3 at Atlanta Falcons - 49ers I guess. Someone has to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at New Orleans Saints - The Saints are supposedly back to last season’s form. They’re playing a good team this week so I have a feeling it will be back to early this season form for at least a game.
Denver Broncos +3 at Detroit Lions - I really hate the Broncos. Mostly because I over estimate them and then look like a fool for thinking they were so good. And because any Bronco I’ve picked up in the last four years in fantasy football has killed me. Still, I have to pick them against the Lions. And am I going to be pissed when they let me down.
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 at Buffalo Bills - Bengals. And if they don’t win this they might as well forfeit the rest of the season.
San Diego Chargers -7.5 at Minnesota Vikings - I really hope the Chargers crush Minnesota. Both because I’m picking them to, and because I hate the Vikings.
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Cleveland Browns - This would be a good weak for Seattle’s offense to have a monster game. It won’t be big enough though. Cleveland is actually decent this year.
New England Patriots -6.5 at Indianapolis Colts - The game of the year, and I’m going to miss it. I’ll be on a plane back to Chicago at the time. The Colts are pretty good, and playing at home, but I still think the Pats will kill them. It won’t even be close. Pats by at least two touchdowns, but if I only have to lay 6.5 I’ll take it.
Houston Texans +3 at Oakland Raiders - I’d flip a coin, but since the Texans are getting the points, I’ll just take them.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Philadelphia Eagles - I’m not sure how the Cowboys are only giving up three points here. I’d take them giving as many as seven. Maybe even more. The Bears won by three against the Eagles. And the Bears are horrible.
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NFL Week 8 Pick Results
By Mike | October 30, 2007
Winner! Its a miracle! Not that its saying much, but I think this week was my best this year as I went 9-3 with one no-pick. This is either the “even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while” theory, or maybe I finally figured things out. Until proven otherwise I’m going to go with the latter. This brings by yearly record all the way up to 38-54-8. A few more weeks like this and I might get within striking distance of 500. or not.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 27 | -3 | 20 | St. Louis Rams |
| Detroit Lions | 16 | +5.5 | 7 | Chicago Bears |
| Indianapolis Colts | 31 | -7 | 7 | Carolina Panthers |
| New York Giants | 13 | -10 | 10 | Miami Dolphins |
| Oakland Raiders | 9 | +7 | 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 23 | -1 | 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | -4 | 13 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Buffalo Bills | 13 | +3 | 3 | New York Jets |
| Houston Texans | 10 | No Pick | 35 | San Diego Chargers |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | +4 | 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| New Orleans Saints | 31 | -3 | 10 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Washington Redskins | 7 | +17 | 52 | New England Patriots |
| Green Bay Packers | 19 | +3 | 13 | Denver Broncos |
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Punt Offense
By Mike | October 29, 2007
During the John Schoop era, and then again during Grossman’s QB reign I suggested that the Bears punt on first down. They either weren’t trying or weren’t competent on offense so why risk turning the ball over and giving your opponent good field position, or worse, points? At the time the defense and special teams were the only units scoring points so why not punt on first down and give them more opportunities?
Well, now that we no longer have to worry about Schoop or Grossman we should be fine right? Full steam ahead. Let’s score some points the old fashioned way! On offense. The problem is the offense is terrible. The O-line is old and slow, the QB is average at best, the back below average, and the receivers can’t get open. And when they do they can’t hold on to the ball.
So back to letting the Defense score again? Unfortunately we’ve come to find out that the defense isn’t very good either. To be honest they may not have been that great in years past either, but they had us fooled because they were good at getting turnovers. A turnover in the red zone does a nice job of hiding the fact that you just let the other team drive 85 yards on you with no problem. This year they haven’t been getting the turnovers and thus haven’t been looking nearly as good as in years past.
So what the Bears do?
Simple. Implement the punt offense.
Devin Hester is the one player on the team that we can honestly expect to get into the endzone with any regularity so they obviously need to get him the ball more often. They’ve tried as a wide receiver with limited success. He’s still only getting two or three touches a game.
Here’s what needs to happen. Start out in a standard I formation with one exception. Hester is the back, and he’s fifteen or twenty, maybe even twenty five yards behind the line of scrimmage. Immediately after receiving the snap, the QB turns and laterals to Hester. And that’s all there is to it. Now its like he’s returning a punt on every play. By backing up so much it staggers the defense a bit and gives him some room to work his magic. If teams won’t punt to him then make every play like a punt.
Sure he might lose some significant yardage on occasion, but he’ll also get into the endzone three or four times a game. Plus think of how worn out the defense will be chasing him around on every play.
Want to mix it up a bit? Teach Hester to throw. He doesn’t have to be great, but if he can reliably throw a ball 10-15 yards, if he gets into trouble maybe he can toss it to a tight end and let him run with it. It will force the D to keep a guy or two back.
Want to get really fancy? Forget the QB. Make Hester the QB and use the longsnapper as the center. Use the extra player as another blocker.
I’m telling you its the only way the Bears are going to have a chance of winning.
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Bears Debacle
By Mike | October 28, 2007
What a horrible game.
Any time the Bears defense wants to make a tackle is fine with me.
Why is it that when Cedric Benson breaks one for a large run it goes for 8 yards and when any Bears opponents break one it goes for 18?
Other backs look for and fight to get to the open space. Benson gets taken down if the defender stares at him too hard.
Griese did a nice Rex Grossman impression, completing three passes in the endzone, all of which to the wrong team. Three interceptions in the endzone is not going to get it done.
And way to almost score with three minutes left. Did they not realize they needed two scores to win? Even if they did score, they wouldn’t have had enough time for another.
The Bears offense is just so frustratingly bad. Its a good thing they’re on a bye this week. Maybe they can figure out how to put together a drive.
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Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 8
By Mike | October 26, 2007
You know the drill. Here are my picks. They probably suck. Feel free to bet against me and prosper.
Cleveland Browns -3 at St. Louis Rams - Browns. No contest.
Detroit Lions +5.5 at Chicago Bears - I’m going to keep picking against the Bears. That way even if they lose, at least I picked right. Plus I don’t think they’re very good.
Indianapolis Colts -7 at Carolina Panthers - I think this would be closer if the Panthers had a more stable QB situation. So I’m going to have to take Indy.
New York Giants -10 at Miami Dolphins (in London) - The New York Football Giants should have no problem with this game. And they better do well because my fantasy team depends on it.
Oakland Raiders +7 at Tennessee Titans - Hey look, I haven’t picked a home team yet. I like the Raiders plus the points in this one. I’m just not sold on the Titans yet.
Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Minnesota Vikings - Maybe I’ll take all road teams this week. I think the Eagles will pull this one out. Although the Vikings beat the Bears at home, who Beat the Eagles at home who should therefore lose to the Vikings. I’m still taking the Eagles. This season hasn’t made much sense yet. Why start now?
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Cincinnati Bengals - I really expected more out of the Bengals this year, and not much out of the Steelers, but it really hasn’t worked out that way. Steelers should win this one, no problem. And I expect them to cover as well.
Buffalo Bills +3 at New York Jets - And I’m going to break my all road team streak on the Jets of all teams. I just don’t think Buffalo is very good and it shouldn’t take much to beat them. Lucky for the Jets because they don’t have much. Still they’ll win by at least three.
Houston Texans ?? San Diego Chargers - There aren’t any odds posted at the moment. I guess that has to do with the fires and the uncertainty about when or where the game will be played. I’d probably take the Chargers, but I’ll skip this game this week, unless I check back later and there are posted odds.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I think Jacksonville wins this straight up, but I’ll take the points if you’re giving them.
New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco 49ers - I’m not real sure about this one, but I’ll take the Niners +3 at home.
Washington Redskins +17 at New England Patriots - As I’ve said for the past few weeks, sooner or later some one is going to have to come within 17 points of the Pats, but until it happens I’m not picking against them. Maybe if they play the Colts.
Green Bay Packers +3 at Denver Broncos - Which Denver team shows up this week? The one that got killed by the Chargers, or the one that ran over the Steelers? I’m hoping the later, but I doubt it. Green Bay goes into Denver and comes out with the win.
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NFL Week 7 Pick Results
By Mike | October 25, 2007
Well, my winning streak lasted all of one week. I went back to my craptacular form in week seven, going 5-8-1 and bringing my embarrassing season total to 34-59-9. If there’s one thing I’m not good at, its picking football winners against the spread.
I just realized that if you are reading this in an aggregator like bloglines then you are missing out on the pretty formating that my results tables list. I’d be tempted to try to fix that if I thought anyone read this and I wasn’t so damn lazy. You’ll have to click through to the site if you want to see all the nice red highlights for my failed picks.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 19 | +8.5 | 21 | Washington Redskins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 16 | +8 | 22 | New Orleans Saints |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14 | -3 | 19 | Buffalo Bills |
| New England Patriots | 49 | -17 | 28 | Miami Dolphins |
| San Fransisco 49ers | 15 | +9.5 | 33 | New York Giants |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | +2.5 | 23 | Detroit Lions |
| Tennessee Titans | 38 | -1.5 | 36 | Houston Texans |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12 | +3 | 10 | Oakland Raiders |
| New York Jets | 31 | +6.5 | 38 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Minnesota Vikings | 14 | +10 | 24 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Chicago Bears | 19 | +6 | 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| St. Louis Rams | 6 | +8.5 | 33 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 | -4 | 31 | Denver Broncos |
| Indianapolis Colts | 29 | -3.5 | 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
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Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 7
By Mike | October 20, 2007
Lets go for two week in a row with positive results shall we? I put the over/under on number of games I get right this week at 5 out of 13. Anyone brave enough to take the over?
Arizona Cardinals +8.5 at Washington Redskins - Both of these team s have confused me this year. Normally I’d almost always bet Cardinals. Maybe its just a Cubs fans irrational hatred of red birds, or maybe its because they’ve been terrible for as long as I can remember. That being said 8.5 is a lot of points and I don’t the Skins are that good. So I’ll take Arizona and the points.
Atlanta Falcons +8 at New Orleans Saints - Eight points is a lot of points for a 1-4 team to be giving up, but against the Falcons I’ll do it.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Buffalo Bills - Buffalo has problems scoring against bad defenses. I can see this being a shutout. Ravens easily.
New England Patriots -17 at Miami Dolphins - Laying 17 points on the road? Still, until they prove me wrong I’m going to have to stay with New England who has just been ridiculous this year.
San Fransisco 49ers +9.5 at New York Giants - Here’s two more teams that aren’t what I expected them to be this year. I thought the Niners were an up and coming team, and the Giants would be more of the same except worse without Tiki, but I apparently as is often the case, I was wrong. Still the Niners will at least come within a score of winning this game, so I’ll take San Fransisco and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 at Detroit Lions - Tampa wins this one. But as long as they are giving them, I’ll take the points.
Tennessee Titans -1.5 at Houston Texans - Big injuries on both sides of this one, but I’ll take the Texans with as little confidence as possible.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Oakland Raiders -I’m not real sure where to go with this one either, so I’ll take the home team.
New York Jets +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals - What happened to the Bengals this year? I was expecting their offense to just run away with things, but as good as the offense is, the defense is that bad. Bears fans would dream of having any one of Palmer, Johnson, Johnson, or Houshmensadah. Having all of them on one team and still being 1-4 goes to show how important a good defense is. Lucky for them the Jets offense is less than impressive so their defense should be able to hold them to say, 20 points which will be significantly less than the Jets need.
Minnesota Vikings +10 at Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys will rebound this week and demonstrate to the Bears how to stop an offense that relies solely on one guy. Even if he is an outstanding player.
Chicago Bears +6 at Philadelphia Eagles - Ugh. Two teams with playoff expectations coming into the season now just struggling to get to 500. I have a bad feeling the Bears are entering a death spiral that will put them at 5-11 by the end of the year. This game would make be cry if I wasn’t already expecting them to get destroyed.
St. Louis Rams +8.5 at Seattle Seahawks - I’ve been overestimating the Seahawks all year. They gave New Orleans their first win last week, will they do the same for the Rams? I don’t think so. The Rams have too many injuries, and have been playing too poorly to win, or even cover in this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Denver Broncos - I have to admit I did not see the Steelers coming this year. I thought at best they’d make that last wild card spot, but I’ve always felt they were a bit overrated. Whatever they are doing, it seems to be working and they should have no problem going into Denver and blowing them out.
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville has given the Colts problems over the years, but with Addai returning I think they’ll get out of there with a win. That extra half point concerns me because I could easily see this being a last second field goal win for the Colts, but I’ll take them anyway.
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NFL Week 6 Pick Results
By Mike | October 16, 2007
Its a miracle. I actually finished over 500 this week. Can that be right? Just when you thought it was safe to take the opposite of my picks, I have a good week. I went an amazing 6-5-2 last week, bringing my year to date total all the way up to 29-51-8.
| Away Team | Pts | Spread | Pts | Home Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 20 | -3 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Houston Texans | 17 | +7 | 37 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Miami Dolphins | 31 | +5 | 41 | Cleveland Browns |
| Minnesota Vikings | 34 | +6 | 31 | Chicago Bears |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | -3.5 | 9 | New York Jets |
| St. Louis Rams | 3 | +10 | 22 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Tennessee Titans | 10 | +3 | 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Washington Redskins | 14 | +3 | 17 | Green Bay Packers |
| Carolina Panthers | 25 | +4.5 | 10 | Arizona Cardinals |
| New England Patriots | 48 | -6.5 | 27 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Oakland Raiders | 14 | +10 | 28 | San Diego Chargers |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | +7 | 17 | Seattle Seahawks |
| New York Giants | 31 | -3.5 | 10 | Atlanta Falcons |
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Mike’s NFL Picks 2007 Week 6
By Mike | October 12, 2007
Lets see if I get half of these right this time I think that would be a major accomplishment.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Kansas City Chiefs - Bengals easily. They need to get their season back on track and KC is the perfect place to do it. The Chiefs formerly incredible offense is no longer very impressive.
Houston Texans +7 at Jacksonville Jaguars - I don’t know that the Jaguars can score 7 points against any halfway decent team. The Texans may not win this one, but they’ll certainly cover.
Miami Dolphins +5 at Cleveland Browns - I’m tempted to take Miami here, but I’ve already take two road teams and there’s no way I’m making Miami my third. I don’t care who they’re playing or how many points they’re getting.
Minnesota Vikings +6 at Chicago Bears - I’m going with the Vikings here only because last week I picked against the Bears and they won. I’m not superstitious, but until proven otherwise I’m going to stick with this strategy. It might cost me in my pick stats but if it helps the Bears I’ll take one for the team.
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at New York Jets - I’m thinking the good Eagles offense shows up against the not so formidable Jets D.
St. Louis Rams +10 at Baltimore Ravens - The rams are terrible this year, but the Ravens haven’t shown that they can score ten points on a regular basis, let alone win by 10. And yes so far I’ve five of six road teams. You wonder why my stats are so bad?
Tennessee Titans +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I’m still not sold on the Bucs, but for some reason I think they’ll pull this one out.
Washington Redskins +3 at Green Bay Packers - Much as I’d like to see them lose, I have a feeling the Pack rebound this week.
Carolina Panthers +4.5 at Arizona Cardinals - Vinnie Testaverde might start for Carolina? I think that just about tells you everything you need to know.
New England Patriots -6.5 at Dallas Cowboys - This is going to be the fewest amount of points the Pats give this year with the exception of the Colts game. Dallas will put some points on the board, but not nearly as many as New England.
Oakland Raiders +10 at San Diego Chargers - Ok, the Chargers we all expected to show this year finally did last week, but I’m guessing that’s the exception case. They’ll win this week, but Oakland isn’t as awful as they have been in recent years, and they should cover.
New Orleans Saints +7 at Seattle Seahawks.- I really hope Seattle runs up the score this week. Not that I have anything against the Saints, I just have two Seahawks on my fantasy team.
New York Giants -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons - This is looking like a pretty boring game for Monday night. Giants will win. Give the 3.5 points.
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